Bills Offseason Plan - Part Two

EXTENSIONS

After contract restructures and a couple pay cuts I have the Bills under the cap by about $2.2 million. The Bills have several extension candidates who have proven their worth over the last few seasons. Some are more obvious than others given age and injury history. There are two obvious extensions, plus three more I think the team should ultimately move forward with, although I could see them going in a different direction.

TOP 51 + DEAD MONEY LIABILITIES: $253,465,098

CAP SPACE: $2,247,119

Obvious Extensions

9. LT Dion Dawkins, three-year, $60 million extension, 2024 Savings: $6,630,000

Dawkins in 2023 solidified himself as one of the top left tackles in the game. Dawkins turns 30 in April, but the Bills should still consider himself the long-term blindside protector for Josh Allen. The value of this extension is based on Jake Matthews three-year, $55 million which will carry him through 2026 in Atlanta. The Bills could potentially add a void year to the end of this extension to help spread out the cap hit further.

10. CB Taron Johnson, three-year, $36 million extension, 2024 Savings: $4,483,000

Coming off his first All-Pro selection in 2023, the Bills should commit to Johnson as one of the best nickel corners in the game. Johnson will be 28 when next season kicks off so the Bills should look to lock him up for the remainder of his prime. The value here is based on Cameron Sutton’s a three-year, $33 million contract he signed with the Lions along with the three-year, $38 million contract James Bradberry signed with the Eagles.

Extension Decisions

11. CB Rasul Douglas, one-year, $8 million extension, 2024 Savings: $6,255,000, Restructure Savings: $2,437,500

UPDATE: The Bills restructured $1,250,000 of Douglas' $7,250,000 base salary, along with his $2,000,000 signing bonus and spread the hits out across Douglas' pre-existing three void years. The new contract carries cap hits of $812,500 in 2025, 2026, and 2027.

The Bills acquired Douglas via trade during the 2023 season and he filled in admirably for the injured Tre’Davious White. With Christian Benford and Taron Johnson back in the fold, plus White’s road to recovery impacting 2024, I think the Bills should secure Douglas’ services through the 2025 season while restocking the position via the draft. Douglas’ contract already includes three void years with no cap hits, meaning the Bills can fill those in with restructured cap hits. A one-year, $8 million extension ensures the Bills have quality depth at the CB position regardless of White’s recovery.

12. C Mitch Morse, one-year $10 million extension with two void years, 2024 Savings: $5,085,000, Cut Savings: $8,500,000 ($3,000,000 dead money)

UPDATE: The Bills cut Mitch Morse producing savings of $8,500,000 for 2024 while leaving behind $3,000,000 in dead money.

Morse has a big cap hit in 2024 at $11.5 million, and while the Bills could save $8.5 million by moving on, there is not a suitable replacement currently on the roster. An extension with two void years allows the Bills to prorate the cap hit across four seasons, save more than $5 million in 2024, and ensure its center of the future can come along at his own pace over the next two seasons. I don’t believe 2024 or 2025 is the season to hand the reins of the offensive line over to a young player.

13. CB Tre’Davious White, restructure with two void/non-guaranteed years added, 2024 Savings: $6,705,000, Post-June 1st Cut Savings: $0 until after June 1st, then $10,208,824 savings for 2024 with a dead money hit of $4,134,919 in 2025. Total savings: $6,0973,905

UPDATE: The Bills cut White with a post-June 1st designation. This means his full cap number of $16,433,740 stays on the ledger through June 1st, but White is free to sign with another team starting March 13th (start of new league year). On June 2nd, White's 2024 cap hit is reduced to $6,234,916, with another $4,134,919 pushed to 2025.

White’s contract is one of the trickiest for Brandon Beane to navigate. The first draft pick of the regime will be rehabbing an Achilles injury and comes with a cap hit north of $16 million. That’s two major injuries for White in the past two seasons, something that must weigh on the Bills’ front office as it evaluates its options. Cutting White would save over $6 million on this year’s cap, but leave the Bills painfully thin at outside corner. Adding the void/non-guaranteed years lessens the impact of the restructuring, while giving the Bills options if White does return close to his former self.

THREE NON-MOVES

While the restructures, renegotiated pay cuts, and extensions listed above will save the Bills nearly $78 million on the 2024 cap, there are three other contracts the team could also look at for savings.

14.  WR Stefon Diggs has a 2024 cap hit of $27,854,000

15.  EDGE Von Miller’s is $23,799,000, $15,154,000, 2024 Savings: $8,645,000

UPDATE: The Bills and Miller renegotiated his contract. Miller's base salary was reduced from $17,145,000 to $1,500,000 and a $7,000,000 roster bonus was added ($8,500,000 guaranteed salary). That $8.5m combines with previously prorated bonuses of $6,374,000, a workout bonus of $100,000 and Likely To Be Earned Per Game Roster Bonuses of $180,000 to equal a 2024 cap hit of $15,154,000. The moves generates savings of $8,645,000 in 2024.

The new deal is heavy on incentives with $11,145,000 deemed Not Likely To Be Earned. Should Miller earn any or all of these incentives the cap figure will hit in 2025, not 2024. Per Spotrac, the incentives include:

• $1m for two sacks, $2.5m for four sacks, $4m for six sacks, $6m for eight sacks, $8.645m for 10 sacks, and $9.645m for 15 sacks

• $1.5m for 12 sacks + AFC Championship Game win with Miller playing at least 30% of AFCCG snaps

Miller also has $180,000 in per game roster bonuses ($15,000 for 12 games) deemed Likely To Be Earned and another $75,000 in per game roster bonuses couched as Not Likely To Be Earned. Playing 12 games and getting 10 sacks gets Miller back up to $17,145,000 in salary, plus he is still owed $6,374,000 in previously prorated bonuses. Maxing out both incentives, playing in every game, and earning the workout bonus gets Miller up to $20,000,000 plus the prorated bonuses.

16.  S Jordan Poyer comes with a $7,720,000 hit. $2,000,000, 2024 Savings: $5,720,000

UPDATE: The Bills cut Poyer leaving behind $2,000,000 in 2024 dead money and generating $5,720,000 in savings.

Given the stress the Bills are putting on the cap, and the relative reluctance by Beane to continue pushing money into the future, I think the Bills should eat its vegetables on these contracts. They are big numbers, but with Allen’s extension in full force the Bills must find ways to enjoy a balanced diet. The front office has already splurged several times, now its time to tighten things up.

TOTAL EXTENSIONS SAVINGS: $29,158,000

TOTAL SAVINGS: $76,458,500

TOP 51 + DEAD MONEY LIABILITIES: $224,307,098

CAP SPACE: $31,405,119