Camp Update

Last week I reset the Bills roster, discussed optimism and and concerns for both sides of the ball, identified key camp battles, and gave a 53-man roster projection. With six days of camp completed let's check in on those key positional battles and eat some crow on a few of my projections. Disclaimer: I'm not attending camp this season so everything I'm referencing is from other sources, notably Joe Buscaglia at The Athletic and the Cover 1 crew.

Wide Receiver

What I said last week: The starting trio appears locked in but after that I could be talked into just about anything. Will K.J. Hamler become the speed option I mentioned above? Can 2023 fifth-rounder Justin Shorter carve out a role? Can Chase Claypool find his best self in Western New York? And how big are the roles for [Mack] Hollins and [Marquez] Valdes-Scantling? This is the most fascinating position group to follow at camp.

The latest: The starting trio is indeed locked in with Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir entrenched with the Josh Allen-led first team offense. Samuel is being all over the formation from outside to the slot to the backfield. His versatility and reunion with offensive coordinator Joe Brady could portend a big season for the Bills' main free agency splash.

As for backup spots, the veterans Hollins and Valdez-Scantling always held pole position and for now are holding off the competition. The main challenges are from Hamler, who's faded recently, and former practice squad player Tyrell Shavers who can both chip in on special teams. Shavers especially has taken advantage of his opportunity and is pushing hard to clinch a spot on the 53-man. Claypool is in the mix as well, but without the special teams contribution. With the top three locked in and an established second tier for the veterans special teams involvement may be what breaks the tie at sixth wide receiver.

Line Depth

What I said last week: I only listed the starters as locks because I feel like any combination of the reserves could be left off the final roster. Van Demark and Anderson are as close to locks as can be, and I think Collins has enough left in the tank plus offers some versatility. Van Pran-Granger should have a nice reserve role, as well. But I could also see a world where any of them are beat out by a Tylan Grable or a Will Clapp or the appropriately named Keaton Bills. If I'm guessing right now it'll be Van Demark, Anderson, Collins, and Van Pran-Granger, but I'm hesitant to call them locks for now.

The latest: My concern here is more about regression in the form of injuries along the line, but I was hesitant to name any of the backups locks because of the depth behind the starters. So far, Van Demark, Anderson, and Collins are all performing in their roles. Collins may end up having to kick inside to guard instead of being a swing tackle, but that's okay with Van Demark and Anderson as backups on the outside. Tylan Grable has been the biggest surprise thus far, pushing for a roster spot as sixth-rounder. Grable has mixed in at both tackle positions and held his own in reps against the likes of Von Miller and rookie Javon Solomon. The tricky part with Grable is he may not clear waivers and make it to the practice squad if he continues to play well. That may force Brandon Beane's hands into keeping Grable on the 53-man and playing practice squad roulette elsewhere. For now, the top eight appear locked in with Grable, Van Pran-Granger, and free agent-signee Will Clapp in the mix to round out the group.

Backup Running Back

What I said last week: Ty Johnson was brought back in the offseason and saw a big bump in usage once Brady took over. He'll have to fend off challenges from practice squad stalwart Darrynton Evans and undrafted free agent Frank Gore Jr.

The latest: In a complete whiff I skipped past including fourth-round pick Ray Davis in the competition so a full mea culpa there. As should have been predicted it's Johnson versus Davis for the backup role behind James Cook. Both backs offer versatility out of the backfield (there's that word again... are we sensing a theme for what this Brady-led offense will look like??), with Davis providing more short-yardage chops as a 5'8", 220 lb. bowling ball. This position is less of a battle for who will and won't make the final roster, but I do think the roles and usage of Johnson and Davis are important to monitor as camp progresses.

Backup Cornerback

What I said last week: By far my biggest concern heading into the 2024 season. Unless Elam figures it out or Hardy has a Benford-esque camp there just isn't a lot to like behind the starters. Ja'Marcus Ingram and Kyron Brown are practice squaders. Perhaps Keni-H Lovely or Te'Cory Couch can go from undrafted free agent to key backup on a contender. I'll be closely following the second team reps and something tells me if there's a move left for Beane to make before the season it will be at corner.

The latest: By default the third cornerback position is Elam's to lose, but to his credit he has been playing well thus far. Other names to watch include Cam Lewis, who has been mixing in at corner and safety as a jack-of-all-trades DB, and Ja'Marcus Ingram. Although Taron Johnson has the starting nickel corner spot locked down, McDermott and Babich have been working in others in case depth is required during the season. Ingram in particular could prove incredibly useful as a primarily boundary corner behind the Benford-Douglas tandem who can also fill in at nickel if needed. Consider Ingram the boundary corner version of Lewis. I'm still leery about the depth at corner, but continued performances like we've seen from Elam and Ingram will lessen my worry.

Backup Linebacker

What I said last week: New vs old. While I have Specter and Williams as locks, it will be interesting to follow the impact Morrow and Ulofoshio have on who gets second-team reps. Linebacker is perhaps the one position that McDermott feels comfortable playing youngsters at so it wouldn't surprise me if Ulofoshio pushes for some. Then again, McDermott and Babich may prefer to have Morrow's veteran voice behind Milano.

The latest: Owing to the fact that a lot of the interest in this position revolves around Matt Milano's return from injury this may be the least discussed position group thus far. Dorian Williams filled in for Milano who sat out with a vet rest day, but other than that it does not appear there's been a lot of shuffling with this group.

Backup Safety:

What I said last week: I'm interested to see if Cole Bishop can push Rapp or Edwards for first-team reps. Beyond that trio Cam Lewis returns to provide continuity and versatility in the defensive backfield. If Bishop pops might we see some three safety looks??

The Latest: No position group has seen more upheaval than safety. The Bills began camp with Damar Hamlin on the first team defense opposite the returning Taylor Rapp. Day two saw Mike Edwards next to Rapp, and on day three the rookie Bishop got his shot. From there things have crumbled. Mike Edwards has been described by McDermott as "week-to-week" with a hamstring injury. I don't have the data, but I worry about a soft tissue injuries in training camp lingering all season. Combine that with the week-to-week description, which typically means a couple months in McDermott parlance, and there has to be some worry among the staff about this group. Bishop has loads of potential, but as McDermott mentioned in a recent press conference, safety is one of the hardest positions for a rookie to learn. To make matters worse Bishop sustained his own injury to his shoulder and was also described as week-to-week. In response to the injuries the Bills signed veteran safeties Kareem Jackson and Terrell Burgess. Hopefully these end up being merely training camp depth moves instead of players that are forced to contribute in major ways during the season. The coaching staff has been praising Hamlin all spring and summer so perhaps he can solidify a roster spot as the main backup safety with Edwards and especially Bishop expected to miss crucial development time.

This position went from a slight concern for me to a major concern, particularly as I think back to last season's Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals moved on from two veteran safeties due to salary cap concerns last offseason and handed the reins over to two younger players. The backend of the defense fell apart as the Bengals were repeatedly torched for explosive pass plays. This offseason the Bengals had to address the position by signing Geno Stone in free agency and bringing back former starter Vonn Bell after he spent a year in Carolina. The Bills are setup better with the veteran Rapp in the fold, and hopefully Edwards and Bishop can put the injuries behind them quickly. Hamlin will need to step up. If not, perhaps we'll hear Micah Hyde's music again sooner than later.

Punter

What I said last week: Sam Martin returns, but Beane already signaled that he's not a roster lock when he brought back former Bills punter Matt Haack, and then upon cutting Haack brought in Jack Browning as an undrafted free agent. If Martin struggles the door is wide open.

The latest: Browning was released to make room for Burgess after the undrafted free agent failed to make a dent in his competition to unseat the incumbent Martin. Add to that the financial commitment already made to Martin and this battle fizzled out before it really got started.

Kicker

What I said last week: I'm just saying Tyler Bass is not a lock at this point. I'll be monitoring his performance throughout camp and keeping my eye on other teams' cuts at kicker. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills went in a different direction.

The latest: Bass is the guy for now so unless something chaotic happens I expect him to be the kicker on opening day.

My Biggest Projection Miss

The Dawuane Smoot signing went under the radar in lieu of all the post-draft hype around Keon Coleman. I assumed he was a veteran depth piece signed to a small deal with little, if any, guarantees similar to other defensive lineman Casey Toohill and DeShawn Williams. While Smoot's contract value is more than those two players ($2,500,000 to $1,155,000) the real difference is in the guarantees. Smoot is guaranteed $1,750,000 this season AND has four void years attached to his deal allowing the Bills to spread his $1,290,000 signing bonus over the max five years. Williams and Toohill each have just $15,000 fully guaranteed with zero void years tacked on. Smoot is all but a lock to be on the final 53-man.

Updated Roster Projection and Final Cuts

QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky

RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

WR (6): Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyrell Shavers (cut Shorter and Hamler, added Shavers)

TE/FB (4): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam, Quintin Morris

OL (10): Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ryan Van Demark, La'el Collins, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Alec Anderson, Tylan Grable (added Grable)

DL (9): Gregory Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Von Miller, DeWayne Carter, Austin Johnson, Javon Solomon, Dawuane Smoot (cut Jonathan and Williams, added Smoot)

LB (6): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Specter, Nicholas Morrow, Edefuan Ulofoshio

CB (5): Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram (cut Hardy, added Ingram)

S (5): Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis, Damar Hamlin (added Hamlin)

LS (1): Reid Ferguson

P (1): Sam Martin

K (1): Tyler Bass

Last Five In: S Damar Hamlin, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, CB Ja'Marcus Ingram, WR Tyrell Shavers, OL Tylan Grable

Last Five Out: DL Kingsley Jonathan, DL DeShawn Williams, DL Eli Ankou, WR K.J. Hamler, OL Will Clapp