Final Projections

And just like that we're down to the last preseason game and final cuts are due in a week. As is often the case, injuries have played a major role in a lot of the key training camp and preseason battles. Here's one last look at my original projections and where things stand before Saturday's final preseason tilt.

Wide Receiver

What I said last month: The starting trio appears locked in but after that I could be talked into just about anything. Will K.J. Hamler become the speed option I mentioned above? Can 2023 fifth-rounder Justin Shorter carve out a role? Can Chase Claypool find his best self in Western New York? And how big are the roles for [Mack] Hollins and [Marquez] Valdes-Scantling? This is the most fascinating position group to follow at camp.

The latest: The 'starting trio' is really a lock among four players: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Keon Coleman. Valdes-Scantling started slowly but appears to have the inside track on rounding out the group. X-rays were negative on the neck sprain he suffered during the Steelers game, but Coach McDermott announced Tuesday that MVS and Samuel are both "week-to-week" and could be in danger of missing the regular season opener.

Who is best positioned to capitalize? Shorter has not produced the breakout offseason many were hoping for and does not provide any special teams versatility. Claypool got injured early in camp and then was released with an injury settlement last week. Tyrell Shavers had his moments in camp but wasn't able to sustain his push for a roster spot. And Hamler appears to have ceded his return specialist role to Daequan Hardy, placing him firmly on the roster bubble. I still think Hamler can make an impact with his speed on offense in the return game, but I could see the Bills prioritizing depth at other positions. The injury news has me leaning toward Hamler making the final cut because of the speed element he brings, but I could also see Shavers getting a shot if Samuel has to miss regular season action.

Line Depth

What I said last month: I only listed the starters as locks because I feel like any combination of the reserves could be left off the final roster. Van Demark and Anderson are as close to locks as can be, and I think Collins has enough left in the tank plus offers some versatility. Van Pran-Granger should have a nice reserve role, as well. But I could also see a world where any of them are beat out by a Tylan Grable or a Will Clapp or the appropriately named Keaton Bills. If I'm guessing right now it'll be Van Demark, Anderson, Collins, and Van Pran-Granger, but I'm hesitant to call them locks for now.

The latest: Van Demark and Anderson are indeed locks at this point. The final interior backup positions are up for grabs between Van Pran-Granger, Clapp, Collins, and former practice squad member Kevin Jarvis. Tylan Grable and Richard Gouraige have also made strong pushes for the final 53 at tackle. Cutting Collins would be a tough pill to swallow as the veteran is guaranteed $1,210,000. Unfortunately, his days on the outside have passed him by and the Bills have other younger options on the interior. Van Pran-Granger has showed enough as a rookie to make the roster and could be the center of the future, while Clapp can fill in at center and guard. Like Van Pran-Granger, Grable has been a late draft success story that I expect the Bills to keep around the main roster. Perhaps Jarvis and Gouraige return to the practice squad. These final few slots will be decided during the last week.

Backup Running Back

What I said last month: Ty Johnson was brought back in the offseason and saw a big bump in usage once Brady took over. He'll have to fend off challenges from practice squad stalwart Darrynton Evans and undrafted free agent Frank Gore Jr. As should have been predicted it's Johnson versus Davis for the backup role behind James Cook. Both backs offer versatility out of the backfield (there's that word again... are we sensing a theme for what this Brady-led offense will look like??), with Davis providing more short-yardage chops as a 5'8", 220 lb. bowling ball. This position is less of a battle for who will and won't make the final roster, but I do think the roles and usage of Johnson and Davis are important to monitor as camp progresses.

The latest: Davis looked good against Pittsburgh and was the feature back behind James Cook, turning 13 snaps into eight carries for 58 yards. As expected, it looks like Davis will be the short yardage back with Johnson the primary backup to Cook, but Davis is pushing for a larger role. The rotation behind Cook may end up being game plan dependent with Joe Brady mixing up the looks based on the opponent, playing conditions, and how the line is performing.

Backup Cornerback

What I said last month: By far my biggest concern heading into the 2024 season. Unless Elam figures it out or Hardy has a Benford-esque camp there just isn't a lot to like behind the starters. Ja'Marcus Ingram and Kyron Brown are practice squaders. Perhaps Keni-H Lovely or Te'Cory Couch can go from undrafted free agent to key backup on a contender. I'll be closely following the second team reps and something tells me if there's a move left for Beane to make before the season it will be at corner.

The latest: Seems like Kaiir Elam figured it out! And Daequan Hardy has impressed both as an inside slot corner and as a boundary option. Plus, he was the primary (and only) punt returner against Pittsburgh, a huge indication he has that role locked up. Even Ingram has impressed as a potential backup nickel corner to Taron Johnson. I'm still a little worried about the depth here once the regular comes around, but this is a far cry from my biggest concern, particularly if Elam can be counted on.

Backup Linebacker

What I said month: New vs old. While I have Spector and Williams as locks, it will be interesting to follow the impact Morrow and Ulofoshio have on who gets second-team reps. Linebacker is perhaps the one position that McDermott feels comfortable playing youngsters at so it wouldn't surprise me if Ulofoshio pushes for some. Then again, McDermott and Babich may prefer to have Morrow's veteran voice behind Milano.

The latest: The devastating Matt Milano injury takes this from a relative strength on the roster to one with massive looming questions. McDermott also announced Tuesday that Baylon Spector is week-to-week further limiting the depth. It looks like Dorian Williams will have first crack at replacing Milano. Williams was usurped by Tyrel Dodson last season after Milano's season-ending injury, but the second-year player has more experience in the system than free agent-signee Nicholas Morrow or 2024 rookie Edefuan Ulofoshio. All of them should be locks for the final roster, but there's a spot in the starting lineup at stake.

Backup Safety

What I said last month: I'm interested to see if Cole Bishop can push Rapp or Edwards for first-team reps. Beyond that trio Cam Lewis returns to provide continuity and versatility in the defensive backfield. If Bishop pops might we see some three safety looks??

The latest: Absolute tire fire. Mike Edwards and Cole Bishop missed a majority of camp and the preseason, and Hamlin popped up on McDermott's list of week-to-week injuries, as well. At this point, it looks like Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis will be the starting safeties come week one. On the bright side, McDermott also announced that Edwards and Bishop will be participating in walk throughs and doing individual drills at practice this week, so perhaps one of them can get up to speed in time to contribute against Arizona. In hindsight, all of my concern about cornerback should have been at safety.

Punter & Kicker

What I said last month: Sam Martin returns, but Beane already signaled that he's not a roster lock when he brought back former Bills punter Matt Haack, and then upon cutting Haack brought in Jack Browning as an undrafted free agent. If Martin struggles the door is wide open. I'm just saying Tyler Bass is not a lock at this point. I'll be monitoring his performance throughout camp and keeping my eye on other teams' cuts at kicker. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills went in a different direction.

The latest: Neither Martin nor Bass has impressed much this offseason, but no one has been brought in to challenge them either. I guess the Bills staff will just roll with this duo into the regular season. For a team with an evolving offense and uncertainty at key positions on defense, winning on the margins will be key. I don't have much confidence in either kicker helping along those lines.

Odds and Ends

There were two other key injury updates from McDermott on Tuesday: Mitch Trubisky and Quintin Morris are both expected to miss "multiple weeks" which puts their places on the roster in question. Zach Davidson had already been pushing Morris for third tight end reps and this injury could open a pathway for him to make the final roster. The Bills will certainly bring in another quarterback (update: it's Anthony Brown, per Tom Pelissero) to take some reps against Carolina, but until I hear more on Trubisky's injury I'd still expect him to be the backup quarterback on the final roster. Milano will hit IR once the season begins so his inclusion here is temporary. Lastly, a quick practice squad reminder: there are 16 slots available for players who are cut and clear waivers. If another team claims a player he must be put on the 53-man roster. Davidson and Jonathan, among others, could be claim candidates.

Lastly, shoutout to local UB product, Joe Andreessen for his standout performance against the Steelers. Down Milano, Morrow, and Spector due to injuries, and with Bernard being held out as a precaution, "Buffalo Joe" racked up a game-high 12 tackles and put his name on the radar. He's a prime practice squad candidate and hopefully another local success story for the Bills.

Final Projections

There is obviously some fluidity to these projections given the Milano injury and others, but for now this is where I see things. With MVS and Samuel missing the next few weeks I expect Hamler to make the cut. Shavers could also find his way to the 53-man depending on how other positions shake out. Shorter and Isabella should be locks for the practice squad.

For now, I have Trubisky penciled in as the backup but that's a position to monitor. It could just as easily be Brown or another veteran backup depending on the injury. The same applies to Quintin Morris with Zach Davidson waiting in the wings.

Along the offensive line I think Collins and Grable make the cut. Collins because of the guaranteed money and Grable because he has shown enough to get scooped up on waivers by another team. That means Jarvis and Gouraige head to the practice squad with Clapp and others being cut.

The defense is more straightforward with depth (shaky or not) at all three levels. Kingsley Jonathan is a tough guy to cut given what he's done when he's been on the field the past couple seasons. Perhaps, McDermott and Bobby Babich end up keeping six defensive ends. The same could be true at corner where right now I have Ingram on the outside looking in. I have it coming down to Ingram and Edwards in the secondary with Edwards' $600,000 guarantee and the uncertainty at the position tipping the scales. Jonathan and Ingram are both in line to fill Milano's roster spot once the regular season begins.

A Final Note

All in all we're left with more questions than answers as the preseason concludes. Some camp battles went as predicted, while injuries derailed a number of others. What happens at safety? Who replaces Milano? Do the young guys push out the vets behind the offensive line starters? How does the wide receiver room fill out and who will be ready to go week one?

The good news is the defensive line looks stout and is likely to be the strength of the defense this season. Rousseau has shined, Epenesa is steady, Miller looks ready to contribute again, Smoot looks like a free agent find, and Solomon has impressed as a rookie. We already know what Jones and Oliver bring on the interior, and Johnson and Carter are excellent rotational pieces in the McDermott/Babich scheme. McDermott has always been a linebacker whisperer - can he find some magic replacing Milano again in 2024? And dare I say, the corners look good with the additional depth from Elam and Hardy (and Ingram?). Hopefully, the pass rush and the corners can help keep the backend from getting torched.

Offensively, the o-line should continue its high level of play despite a few moving parts. While the depth will likely be challenged this year there are options, both young and old, to fill in. The running back room is the best it's ever been under this regime and James Cook is poised for a breakout year. The same holds true at tight end, where Dalton Kincaid could take a major leap with Knox and Morris/Davidson giving Joe Brady personnel versatility. Wide receiver will continue to be the main question until we see a Khalil Shakir star turn or Keon Coleman become a rookie phenom. At the very least, the depth has improved at the position.

As always, the offense will go as far as No. 17 takes it. Allen is the ultimate force multiplier. His elusiveness and pocket presence make his line better. The power run game he brings makes life easier for his running backs. His accuracy, arm strength, and ability to create give his receivers plenty of opportunities. While there are still lots of questions to be answered with the preseason coming to a close, as long as No. 17 is healthy the Bills will be in contention.