How the Bills Should Attack the First Round

#BillsMafia has not collectively been this into the NFL Draft since 2018. That year, general manager Brandon Beane twice traded up in the first round - first to land quarterback Josh Allen and then again to select linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. These moves helped set the foundation for what became the franchise's second ever window of Super Bowl contention. Six years later the Bills and Beane have arrived at another important crossroads. The offseason purge of veterans including Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White, along with the shocking (to some) trade of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, has many fans and online pundits using phrases like "the window has closed" and "rebuild" to describe the current situation.

But, as Beane reminded everyone at his post-Diggs press conference, "I mean, are we better today? Probably not. It's a work in progress, and we're going to continue to work on that. I would just hope that people know I'm competitive as hell, and I ain't giving in."

Many fans, media members, and mock drafters are convinced Beane will again move up to "get his guy," similar to 2018 and again in 2023 when he maneuvered up to draft Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid. Others, myself included, are aiming for trading back to build cost-controlled depth around Allen's contract extension. Almost universally, it is expected the Bills will use their first pick - wherever it lands - on a wide receiver. But a glance at the depth chart shows other positional gaps that should also be addressed in the first half of the draft including interior defensive line, edge, and safety.

Before diving into the various strategies Beane has at his disposal, here's a quick recap of the selections the Bills currently have:

• Round 1: No. 28

• Round 2: No. 60

• Round 3: No pick, sent out in 2023 trade for cornerback Rasul Douglas

• Round 4: No. 128

• Round 4: No. 133

• Round 5: No. 144

• Round 5: No. 160

• Round 5: No. 163

• Round 6: No. 200

• Round 6: No. 204

• Round 7: No. 248

*The Bills added a 2025 Houston Texans (by way of Minnesota) second round pick in the Diggs trade which has fueled #TeamTradeUp.

One more thing... here is a list of several statements that can all be true at the same time:

• The Bills have a glaring hole at WR1.

• The 2024 draft is widely viewed as having one of the deepest classes of WR talent in recent history.

• Brandon Beane is not afraid to be aggressive and trade up in the first round.

• Josh Allen currently has cap hits of $30.3 million, $43.2 million, $63.9 million over the next three seasons.

• Very few teams have ever sustained Super Bowl contention around a quarterback set to count against the salary cap as much as Allen will. The names are Brady, Manning, Mahomes.

• Barring a catastrophic injury to Allen, it seems fair to say the Bills own first round pick in the new few drafts will be toward the end of the round.

• The Bills have several other positional gaps on the roster.

• Past draft successes (Tre'Davious White) or misses (Kaiir Elam) in similar draft position should not impact the current process.

The Athletic's Dane Brugler has an appropriately titled draft guide, 'The Beast' that provides detailed breakdowns of 52 wide receivers in this class. I'll leave the scouting reports to Dane, but his draft grades can be instructive in evaluating the options available to the Bills. Brugler has four wide receivers with first round grades and 15 total prospects graded in the first three rounds. Most mock drafts and reporting indicates Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze being selected within the first ten picks, Thomas Jr. landing in the middle of the first round, and then a feeding frenzy taking place for the next dozen or so players.

The Case for Trading Down

Have you seen the names on Brugler's list?! Keon Coleman, second round. Troy Franklin, 2nd-3rd. Xavier Legette, third round. Why give up precious assets to move up when Beane can add some lottery tickets to the coffers and still walk away with a star? The one seemingly sure thing in this draft is Marvin Harrison Jr. He's the Julio Jones of 2024. It's highly unlikely a team in position to draft Harrison Jr. would be interested in trading back. Beane should look to capitalize on teams trying to sneak back into the first round while remaining in position to draft a stud wideout.

An extra second round pick would be useful given the Bills don't select until No. 60, and/or replacing the third that went out in the Douglas trade could be huge for a coaching staff with a knack for developing mid-round picks. While wide receiver is certainly a glaring need, it's not the only need if the Bills want to continue battling the Chiefs for AFC supremacy. Bringing back DaQuan Jones on the interior defensive line was a top offseason priority, but after Jones and Ed Oliver it's a mix of veteran fliers. And while A.J. Epenesa was re-signed to continue pairing with Gregory Rousseau and the club hopes Von Miller can get back to top form, the pass rush rotation still leaves a lot to be desired. And what about the revamped secondary, what with Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer cut and Micah Hyde leaning toward retirement? There are way too many question marks littered throughout the roster for Beane to be fooled into thinking he's one Rome Odunze away from the Super Bowl.

First round wide receivers have become all the rage recently, but the hit rates are still not great. Cherry-picking individual players and selections is outcome-based and bad process, but certainly productive receivers can be found throughout the top half of this draft. Here's a breakdown of the first three rounds of wide receiver selections in the last five drafts with Pro Bowlers denoted. This isn't the be-all, end-all for evaluating performance but it's an easy way to draw a line in the sand.

2019: 13 WRs in top three rounds

1st Round: Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry

2nd and 3rd: Deebo Samuel*, A.J. Brown*, DK Metcalf*, Diontae Johnson*, Terry McLaurin*... along with Mecole Hardman* (technically a Pro Bowler but c'mon), J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, Jalen Hurd, Miles Boykin

2020: 15 WRs in top three rounds

1st Round: Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb* (No. 17), Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson* (No. 22), Brandon Aiyuk (No. 25, not a Pro Bowler but awesome)

2nd and 3rd: Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Laviska Shenault, K.J. Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Devin Dunernay* (Pro Bowl returner)

2021: 15 WRs in top three rounds

1st Round: Ja'Marr Chase* (No. 5), Jaylen Waddle (No. 6), DeVonta Smith (No. 10), Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman

2nd and 3rd: Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, D'Wayne Eskeridge, Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall Jr., Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins, Anthony Schwartz

Noteworthy Late Rounder: Amon-Ra St. Brown*, fourth round

2022: 17 WRs in top three rounds

1st Round: Drake London (No. 8), Garrett Wilson (No. 10), Chris Olave (No. 11), Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks

2nd and 3rd: Christian Watson, Wan'Dale Robinson, John Metchie III, Tyquan Thompson, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore, Velus Jones Jr., Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray

2023: 14 WRs in top three rounds

1st Round: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison

2nd and 3rd: Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims*, Tank Dell, Jalen Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker

Noteworthy Late Rounder: Puka Nacua*, fifth round

While no definitive strategy jumps out and every class is different, one thing is clear: the hit rates at WR in the first three rounds are not great. Ja'Marr Chase exploded to the top of the league in Cincinnati, but even his selection was hotly debated with the Bengals passing on offensive tackle Penei Sewell. The 2022 class appears to be headed in the right direction with Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave quickly becoming number one options, while the other 2021 top ten picks, Waddle and Smith, have settled in as high-end number twos behind Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown, respectively.

Given the widely held view of the depth of the 2024 wide receiver class it makes more sense for Beane to trade down, gain draft capital, and hope to come away with someone in the Samuel/Brown/Metcalf class rather than hope Odunze can reach the Chase tier. Odunze is, after all, the third ranked prospect in this class (Brugler had Chase at the top of his WR rankings in 2021 and No. 4 overall on his big board).

If Beane plays his cards right he may address all of the team's needs in the first three rounds while walking away with Ja'Lynn Polk (Odunze's running mate at Washington) or Xavier Legette. With Allen at the helm, a creative play-caller in Joe Brady moving into the OC chair, and other weapons including James Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir, any talented wideout should be able to step in and hit the ground running. From there, Beane can use the extra picks to move up or down the draft board as needed to address the other critical positions of need. This gives the Bills the best chance to compete for a Super Bowl in 2024 while building cost-controlled depth around Allen's extension.

The Case for Letting the Draft Come To You

Trading up is sexy. Trading down is efficient. Staying at No. 28 and taking the best player available at a position of need is... too boring? Buffalo has plenty of late round picks it can package to move up into the middle rounds. There's also no reason to mortgage the future by going all-in for a player who is far from a sure thing. Beane should squat at 28 and let the board come to him. If Brian Thomas Jr. drops the Bills should gladly select him. If Beane can't find a partner to trade down and wants to beat the rush on the second round he can simply take whichever player he feels is best for the Bills. If an edge rusher or defensive tackle is available Beane should take the talent while addressing a top position of need. Names at these positions I have my eye on include Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson at edge and Jer'Zhan Newton at tackle. One could even argue taking Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean is the best use of the Bills first round selection. Just because there are options available doesn't mean they need to be utilized. Beane will surely scour the phone lines in attempts to move up and down, but if the right deal isn't there he should not feel pressured to move off of 28 just for the sake of going all-in or for the sake of building depth. The Bills roster, while flawed, is still one of the best in the league. That should give Beane the confidence at No. 28 to take whichever player he feels is best at a position of need. He said as much at the Diggs trade press conference.

"At 28, if all our first-round receivers are gone and the next guy is well into the second round, but we have other positions, we're going to take the other position. You still gotta take good football players," Beane stated.

My Preference: Trade Down

There is simply too much talent at wide receiver in this draft. Beane has an opportunity to land a player that can become a star without mortgaging the future to do it. He can also use the extra acquired picks to fill in the second and third rounds with high-end top talent at other positions of need. I do not think the Bills front office believes it is one top wideout away from winning the Super Bowl. If Beane and company thought that I think they'd be more likely to trade for an established veteran such as Brandon Aiyuk that they could be certain would step in on day one and elevate the offense. Perhaps Beane does feel that way about Aiyuk on the field, but alas, an extension averaging north of $30 million per season would be nearly impossible to fit in the Bills current cap ledger. Instead, Beane should concentrate on plugging the holes that exist at key positions of need without getting overly focused on wide receiver. Focusing on a singular position at the top of a draft often leaves teams exposed, lacking depth, and chasing their tail every offseason. There is no reason for Beane to feel that desperate. Trade down, snag a talented wide receiver in a loaded class, and reload for the next phase of Josh Allen's prime.

#TeamTradeDown.

The Case for Trading Up

If Brandon Beane wants to land a true, blue-chip prospect at wide receiver all signs point to him needing to move up to do so. Armed with a bevy of late round selections and the extra second round pick coming in 2025, Beane should push his chips in now to replace Diggs and ensure the offense has another top wideout in the arsenal.

The Bills at wide receiver have Khalil Shakir, who impressed down the stretch last season, along with free agent newcomers Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. The offense doesn't just need another wide receiver - it needs a star. Getting a top prospect on a cost-controlled rookie scale contract for the rest of the Allen's prime is arguably the most important thing Beane can do to improve the roster for the 2024 season and beyond. Harrison Jr. and Nabers are not likely to be made available to Buffalo, but Odunze could be in the 7-12 range. There's no point in taking a half measure and trading up a few spots to take Thomas Jr. when an extra sweetener here or there could be enough to land Odunze. Plus, there could be other teams jostling to move up to land Thomas Jr. which would drive up the price anyhow.

If a deal can't be stuck to get Odunze, Beane can pivot to a mid-round selection and jump the line to select Thomas Jr. Realistic fair value deals are shown using @UberHansen's excellent trade machine and his #UberDV draft values for the Bears pick at No. 9, the Raiders at No. 13, the Seahawks at No. 16, and the Steelers at No. 20. For fun, I also pulled the pie-in-the-sky scenario of moving all the way to No. 4 via the Cardinals to land Harrison Jr. and showed the trade with Tampa Bay the Bills made to move up for Allen in 2018. It's important to note that other teams including the Jets at No. 10, Jaguars at No. 17, and Bengals at No. 18 could be in the mix for a wide receiver, not to mention other teams looking up to trade up, as well.

The Bills cannot afford to wait on a player to develop and the later a player is selected the more risk he brings. And who knows if Buffalo will be left out of that second round feeding frenzy and end up with scraps? Beane has the opportunity to turn the Diggs trade into the next star receiver because of the additional 2025 draft capital. There are still plenty of picks left to build out the depth on defense. Beane has shown he knows when to be aggressive and in this pivotal draft, with such a glaring need, he needs to make an all-in move. If he doesn't, the Bills will surely backslide from serious Super Bowl contender to playoff hopeful or worse, wasting precious prime years of Allen's career in the process.