My Offseason Plan for the Buffalo Bills - Part One

Stefon Diggs wants to be traded from the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills should cut Stefon Diggs.

I’m what you would call an Optimistic Bills Fan. I frequently remind myself that this is the second-best time to ever be a Bills fan in the history of the franchise. That landing a true franchise QB is something two-thirds of the league struggles with season in, season out. That, with a healthy Josh Allen, the Bills are one of a handful of teams that can realistically hope to take down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

So, whenever a Stefon Diggs trade rumor or press conference quote or social media post hints at him wanting out of Buffalo I roll my eyes and move on. But this time, I wanted to dig deeper. Could these transactions even be possible given the current financial state of the Bills? What started as a simple question transformed into a full-length offseason plan.

The Bills came into the offseason expecting to be well over the salary cap with big hits coming from Josh Allen’s massive extension, Von Miller, and of course, Stefon Diggs. Building a championship roster around today’s quarterback extension values may be the toughest needle to thread for a modern front office. Using data from OverTheCap.com and drawing inspiration from The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia’s 10-part Bills in Review 2024 series, I created this offseason plan. Some notes before I dive:

• Two moves had already been executed (Connor McGovern restructure, Ryan Bates trade) and one had been reported (Nyheim Hines cut)

• OverTheCap.com data current has of March 4th

• New extension and contract values should be considered projected ranges

TEAM SALARY CAP: $255,712,217

DEAD MONEY: $12,221,717

TOP 51 + DEAD MONEY LIABILITIES: $300,765,598

CAP SPACE: ($45,053,381)

RESTRUCTURES

The first order of business for Brandon Beane is to get the Bills under the cap. Fortunately, there are several restructure options for players who will surely be apart of the future, meaning converting salaries to prorated signing bonuses should not negatively impact the cap in future years. Here are my recommendations for restructures along with the savings they will generate.

1. QB Josh Allen, Savings $23,097,000

This one is easy. The Bills cannot swallow a $47 million cap hit this season and expect to contend for a Super Bowl. A simple restructure yields over $23 million in savings in 2024, while adding less than $6 million each over the next four seasons. Expect the Bills to repeatedly visit the Bank of Josh over the next half decade.

2. TE Dawson Knox, Savings: $6,150,000

Despite the Dalton Kincaid draft pick, Dawson Knox still figures to be heavily involved in the Bills offense over the next couple seasons. Lowering his 2024 cap hit by nearly half is a no-brainer. With no guaranteed salary after this season the Bills could have options if they want to re-evaluate next offseason.

3. IDL Ed Oliver, Savings: $4,231,250

The Bills in 2023 committed to Oliver with a 4-year extension making a restructure palatable given the crunch this offseason. The Bills will need to get younger on the defensive line around the 27-year-old. 

4. LG Connor McGovern, Savings: $3,183,333, $3,740,000

You will have to trust I had this listed prior to the actual move. A simple restructure would have saved the Bills $3,183,333; by adding an additional void year in 2028 the Bills upped the savings to $3,740,000. The 27-year-old should be on the roster through 2026.

5. LB Matt Milano, Savings: $2,396,250

Milano will have to prove himself coming off last season’s major knee injury, but Bills head coach Sean McDermott has proven he can build a top five defense around the all-around talents of Milano. The centerpiece of the Bills defense turns 30 this July.

6. IOL Ryan Bates, Savings: $2,156,250, $1,433,000 ($4,006,000 dead money) minus Top 51 minimum replacement $799,500 = $633,500

UPDATE: The Bills traded Bates to the Chicago Bears for a 2024 5th-round draft selection. Due to prior restructures in 2022 and 2023 $3,006,000 accelerates onto the Bills cap, along with original prorated bonuses of $500,000 each in 2024 and 2025 for a total of $4,006,000 in dead money. The trade saves the Bills $1,433,000 in 2024 minus the top 51 minimum replacement

The versatile Bates was not needed much in 2023 logging just 35 snaps as the Bills top five lineman were astonishingly healthy all season. That type of health will be tough to count on moving forward, meaning the Bills should happily restructure Bates’ contract to save money now. He logged 947 snaps in 15 starts during the 2022 campaign.

TOTAL RESTRUCTURE SAVINGS: $40,248,000

TOP 51 + DEAD MONEY LIABILITIES: $260,517,598

CAP SPACE: ($4,805,381) 

RENEGOTIATED PAY CUTS

7. RB Nyheim Hines, Savings: $3,535,000, $4,660,000 ($500,000 dead money) minus Top 51 minimum replacement $797,500 = $3,862,500

UPDATE: Adam Schefter on Sunday said the Bills plan to release Hines, per source, which would free up $4,660,000 and leave just $500,000 in dead money on the books for 2024. Some of the savings will be reinvested at the position, possibly with unrestricted free agent Ty Johnson.

With James Cook firmly in place as RB1 I believed the Bills would look to keep Hines in the mix as a change of pace veteran backup. The Bills have cycled through backups for years and taken multiple mid-round swings at running back before landing on Cook. But a $5 million cap hit is far too much at the backup RB position, so I reduced Hines’ salary down to the minimum leaving just a $1,625,000 cap hit. Perhaps Hines will find more money on the open market.

8. WR Deonte Harty, Savings: $3,190,000

I also slated a reduction to the minimum salary for Harty. The other skill position and returner depth chess piece on the Bills board, Harty fills more of a need at wide receiver than Hines does at running back. An outright cut would leave over $1.6 million on the books in 2024, while savings around $4.3 million. Given the depth chart at WR (and returner) and the limited funds Beane will have available to fill out the WR room, I think it’s worth keeping Harty on the roster if a reduced rate can be agreed upon.

TOTAL RENEGOTIATE SAVINGS: $7,052,500

TOTAL SAVINGS: $47,300,500

TOP 51 + DEAD MONEY LIABILITIES: $253,465,098

CAP SPACE: $2,247,119