NFL Trends and Week 1 Bills vs Cardinals

As I sit down to write this on the eve of another Bills season, I find myself with two prevailing thoughts. One is a Michael Scott quote from the The Office when he's optimistic about rejoining the dating pool. The other is a popular meme ripped from Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas.

After an offseason of upheaval, a quiet training camp, and a non-existent preseason I can't think of a better way to combine my feelings about the 2024 campaign that is about to unfold.

I am ready for the slow starts.

I am ready for the coaching hot seat rumors.

I am ready for the play-calling questions.

I am ready for the window closing chatter.

I'm also ready to enjoy No. 17 at the height of his powers. To see how the 'everybody eats' offense shapeshifts from week to week. To watch an ascending defensive line. To monitor the progress of an intriguing and positionally crucial group of rookies. To dive into how new coordinators are modernizing the play style. To keep my eye on personnel groupings. To root for leaps from Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Terrel Bernard, and Gregory Rousseau.

Ah shit, here we go again.

Before diving into the week one matchup against the Arizona Cardinals I want to lay out a few big picture league-wide trends I'll be keeping my eye on. I think the Bills are ahead of the curve in some regards, and possibly playing catch up in others.

With the Bills clearly needing a wide receiver at the top of the draft following the Stefon Diggs trade I dug into college scouting reports like never before. What struck me about this WR class (after the top four) was the dichotomy between the speedsters and the ball-winners. One group features Xavier Worthy (5'11", 4.21 40-yard dash at the combine), Ladd McConkey (6'0", 4.39), and Roman Wilson (5'11", 4.39). Adonai Mitchell (6'2", 4.34), Xavier Legette (6'1", 4.39), and Keon Coleman (6'3", 4.61) headline the other group.

The two teams I follow the closest in terms of player acquisition trends are the Chiefs and the Eagles. It was exceptionally notable to me then, when the Chiefs selected Worthy to pair with 2023 second round pick, Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes was the 41st ranked (!) QB by average depth of target last season. With two-high zone defenses proliferating throughout the league and taking away explosive plays, Andy Reid pivoted to a shorter attack. The offense was choppy for most of the season, but still had enough with Mahomes at the controls to win a second consecutive Super Bowl. This season the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown in free agency, drafted Worthy, and jettisoned the unreliable Marquez Valdes-Scantling (we know where he landed). Clearly, the Chiefs front office was seeking to add more speed to open up the field for Mahomes.

NBA crossover fans will appreciate this analogy. In the NBA the pace-and-space era has been defined by positional versatility and long-range shooting. Every contending team in the league has at least four plus shooters on the court, and the very best, the Celtics, have five. This allows Boston to "win the math" every time it takes the court. It can win with everyone on the court bombing open threes. And it can win by utilizing the space provided to bludgeon teams in the paint. I believe we are at the precipice of a similar offensive revolution in the NFL.

Granted, trends in the NFL are more cyclical than the NBA and defensive philosophies will continue to adapt - look no further than the late season troubles of the Miami Dolphins - but I still think it's notable that a non-Kyle Shanahan inspired offense allocated so many resources to speed. The Chiefs, of course, majored in this when Tyreek Hill was on the roster, so perhaps this is just a course correct after 'doing it the hard way' the last two seasons, but defenses have come a long way since Hill was in Kansas City. This time around I think the speed element is being designed to open things up for others. Thursday night's Ravens-Chiefs game was the perfect example. While Worthy got a lot of headlines for scoring two touchdowns, he had only a single rushing attempt and a mere three targets. Meanwhile, the down-to-down efficiency role went to Rice, who turned nine targets into seven grabs and 103 yards. Unsurprisingly Rice (42/54) and Worthy (34) led the WR group in snaps. With Worthy providing the deep threat and occupying defensive backs, Rice was able to dominate underneath. Led by Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins, and with the Chiefs on board, I expect to see more teams attempt to make space in this fashion. For the Bills, that means Mack Hollins and MVS running off defenders to make room for Curtis Samuel and Shakir. Kincaid and Cook should benefit, as well.

That covers the space part of the NBA equation. What about the pace?

I don't mean Chip Kelly possession-based pace. I'm talking about pace before the snap. The Dolphins' cheat motion swept across the league last season. Combine that with Shanahan offenses dictating coverages with condensed splits and we have the NFL's version of pace. Led by Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb, more and more alpha WRs are doing their damage from the slot. Last season, according to PFF, Lamb led the league with 98 slot targets, 69 receptions and 907 yards. If you prefer rate stats, the leaders in yards per route run from the slot were Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, and Nico Collins. More motion. More condensed formations. More playing with the number counts. Together these 'pace factors' dictate coverages. It's easier to execute pass off zone rules than it is to stick with Tyreek Hill on a full speed motion.

And that's where the Keon Coleman pick is so interesting to me and perhaps provides a glimpse of what the Bills will look like with a full offseason under Joe Brady. Having added Samuel, Hollins, and MVS in free agency, the Bills went with the ball-winner on draft night. Brandon Beane has insisted that Coleman will be a true X outside receiver, but I think there's more versatility to Coleman's game. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Bills utilized motion on 50.1% of its plays, good for 17th in the league. Shanahan teams dominate the top of ranks with Miami, San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams, and Green Bay owning four of the top five slots. Kansas City, once again notably, is the other.

Anyone that's paid any attention to the Bills the last 12 months knows that the Bills wanted to diversify its attack by adding Dalton Kincaid to the mix. Heavier formations, more versatility, the development of a reliable running game - I won't bore you by rehashing those tropes. What's different is I expect the Bills to utilize more motion this season and to keep defenses guessing at where Allen wants to go with the football. Everybody eats, right? If Coleman is lined up as the X on every play I think he could struggle to separate and deal with press coverage. He'll probably be fine on a diet of back shoulders, fades, and red zone jump balls, but what will will truly unlock him is if he gets some free releases and isn't pinned up against the sideline.

More motion. More condensed formations. More pace.

From there the heavy personnel groupings can really shine. The Bills have dabbled in the past with blocking WRs - shoutout Gabe Davis for his unsung work in this area - but there was never enough versatility in the play styles of the WRs to keep defenses guessing. Now, imagine the 213 lb. Coleman in a short motion back toward the formation, the 240 lb. Kincaid split out on the opposite side, and 254 lb. Dawson Knox as an in-line tight end. The Bills established a nasty downhill running game toward the end of last season and were a healthy linebacker or two away from taking down Kansas City with a run-heavy game plan. The Bills dominated time of possession (37 minutes to 23), ran the ball on 39 of 78 plays, and had 182 yards and 14 first downs on the ground. The offense had sustained drives of 14, 11, 12, 15, and 16 plays. A little more explosiveness and a WR that can dunk on dudes and it's possible the Bills topple the Chiefs even with A.J. Klein stuck chasing Travis Kelce around.

Across the league I expect to see more two tight end sets this season, along with more gap scheme run games designed to get downhill. Defenders are lighter than ever and most defensive play callers have mastered the art of taking away explosive plays. That should mean lighter boxes (literally and figuratively) and more opportunities for the run game to keep the offense on schedule. Consider this the NFL's version of the Celtics shooting opening up driving lanes that lead to dunks and layups. I'm fascinated to compare how the teams that drafted ball-winners create space with the teams that drafted for speed at WR. In the Bills case, perhaps those speed options were added in free agency. It all adds up to another battle with Kansas City.

So what does this all mean for week one against the Cardinals?

Let's start with what I expect when the Bills have the ball. First, some data on last season's Arizona Cardinals defense:

According to Fantasy Points data, the Cardinals played cover 4 on 33% of opponent drop backs last season, tops in the league and one of only five teams that played cover 4 at a 25% rate or higher. Here are the PFF zone coverage grades for the Cardinals expected starting corners tomorrow:

• Sean Murphy-Bunting (with TEN last year): 63.9

• Starling Thomas V: 41.4

• Garret Williams: 58.7

More... The Cardinals finished 2023:

• 31st in pressure rate at a paltry 17.1%

• Tied for 19th in blitz rate at 22.5%

• Tied for 7th in opponent average depth of target at 8.2 yards

• Third worst in passing touchdowns allowed at 32

• Worst in rushing yards per game allowed last season at 143.2

This all adds up to a big day for Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir. When the offensive line kept Allen clean he had a 74.1% completion rate, averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, was tied for 10th with Lamar Jackson with 17 touchdowns, and was tied for 8th in big time throw rate at 5.5%. Shakir had a 84.9 PFF grade against zone coverage last season and was tied with (double checks) CeeDee Lamb (!) in yards per route run against zone at 2.30. Shakir was a beast from the slot, finishing 9th in slot receiving yards and 18th in yards per route run out of the slot.

I expect Shakir to be positioned and highlighted much like the Chiefs used Rice on Thursday. Brady will dictate the coverage with the personnel groupings while Sheriff Allen sets the pace of shifts and motions. While the Cardinals are strong up the middle with linebacker Kyzir White and safety Budda Baker I still expect to see Garrett Williams at slot corner struggling with Shakir. The space created may not be over the middle like it was for Rice, but controlling the match ups and getting Shakir into space should be a priority for the Bills.

On the other side of the ball the Cardinals will attempt to blend a potent rushing attack with a Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr.-led passing attack. According to Fantasy Points data, in 2023 the Cardinals were second in rushing yards per carry at 5.02 and led the league in the percentage of carries that went for 10+ yards at a whopping 15.1%! The Bills defense will have to key on the running game and force Murray to win the game with his arm. When Murray does drop back to pass the Bills will have to content with tight end Trey McBride, who was second in yards per route run among tight ends last season at 2.03 and 5th with 430 yards after catches. McBride splits his time lined up in the slot and as an inline tight end, which will put pressure on the Bills' young linebacker corp. While Harrison Jr. will surely make some plays, I largely expect the Bills outside corners to keep Maserati Marv from getting unleashed. The Bills defense is almost the negative mirror image of the Cardinals, with question marks up the middle, but a pressure-generating line and above average corners. Fortunately for Buffalo, Murray typically struggles to throw over the middle of the field. Be it because of his diminutive stature or being trapped in Kliff Kingsbury's four verts offense for so long, throwing over the middle is not a strength of Murray's. With that said, Bills fans only have to think back on the last game of the 2023 season to understand how vulnerable a non-Matt Milano linebacker group can be when it comes to guarding tight ends.

Prediction

I think the Bills offense will struggle to find a rhythm early, but once they do they'll start stacking some points. Kyler will do Kyler things, the Cardinals will slow the game down with their run game, and McBride will be a problem all game long. I could see the Bills trailing at halftime 13-10 before finding their footing in the second half. With some clear advantages to go after, the versatility provided by Kincaid and Coleman, and a big game from Khalil Shakir the Bills offense will turn it on in the second half. On defense, Sean McDermott will fine-tune ways to make the Cardinals more one-dimensional. That's when the pass rush will start disrupt the timing of the offense and force Kyler to play hero ball.

He'll be game for it, but ultimately I have the Bills surviving a week one scare 27-22.

And with that, there is no question about it. I am ready to get hurt again. Here we go again.