Squish the Fish! Week 2 Preview

The NFL season is long with many twists and turns so I try to avoid too much hyperbole at the start of the season. With that said... while it's not a must-win, it does feel like Miami needs to take care of business tonight if it wants to end the Bills four-year division title reign. Early season, short week, at home, new and injured safeties for the Bills, no Matt Milano, linebackers that tend to struggle in coverage and with play fakes, and an offensive wizard at play-caller that no doubt has some new wrinkles cooked up for this specific match up.

The Bills, of course, have Josh Allen, and his 11-2 record against the Dolphins in which he's accounted for 41 touchdowns. For those of you counting at home, that's 3+ TDs every time he takes the field versus Miami.

Tonight marks a new chapter in the rivalry with new defensive coordinators on both sides and a reconfigured Buffalo offense. Here's what to watch for when each team has the ball. All stats from PFF unless otherwise cited. Go Bills!

When Miami Has the Ball

The new-look Bills offense against an Anthony Weaver defense is plenty intriguing, but the juice is on the other side of the ball in this one. The Bills defense took a massive hit in week one when All-Pro nickel corner Taron Johnson left the game with a forearm injury after just seven plays. Cam Lewis filled in admirably and saw 55 out of 61 snaps against Arizona, but Miami is a different kind of challenge because of its speed and ability to exploit matchups with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Jaguars in week one busted out a man coverage rate over 73% against Miami with more than half of that in cover 1 looks. For context, only four teams played cover 1 at a rate of 35% or higher in week one. The Jags played cover 2 man 20% of the time, which was only played by 11 teams in total in week one with the next highest rate at 6% for the Jets. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen's plan was largely effective. According to Nate Tice at Yahoo! Sports, the Jags held Tua Tagovailoa to his third lowest dropback success rate (35%) since 2022. The key to the plan was clogging up the middle of the field with various drops, robbers, and rotations. Eventually, Miami got its big play when Hill streaked across the field and housed an 80-yard touchdown with 56 yards coming after the catch.

The Bills, unsurprisingly majored in cloud and zone coverage in week one with the primary goal to limit Marvin Harrison Jr.. According to Sam Schwartzstein and NFL Next Gen Stats, the Bills played cloud, cover 2 or cover 6 on 40% of dropbacks in week one, good for third highest in the league in week one. And per Tice, the Bills clouded Harrison Jr.'s side of the field on 39% of Cardinals dropbacks. Arizona responded by attacking underneath as you can see in Kyler Murray's passing chart.

I expect the Bills in this game to continue the cloud coverage theme from week one. It's something Sean McDermott has utilized when the Bills face upper-echelon receivers, in this case Tyreek Hill. Rewinding to last season reveals some of these trends. In week 4 with Waddle in the lineup (and pre-Rasul Douglas trade, pre-Milano injury) the Bills held Hill to a paltry 3 receptions for 58 yards and Waddle to 4 grabs for 46 yards. While Hill led the team in receiving yards, it was Braxton Berrios who led the way with 6 receptions on 6 targets. When the Bills were in zone coverage in that game tight end Durham Smythe had 4 catches for 41 yards.

In week 18 with Waddle out injured (post-Douglas trade, post-Milano injury), Hill gobbled up 13 total targets (46% share!), 10 of which came versus zone looks. He finished the game 7/82/1 with 5/51/1 coming against zone coverage. Tua attempted 35 passes on 41 dropbacks in the week 4 blowout. In the closely fought week 18 battle he only had 28 attempts on 29 dropbacks. A healthy Waddle changes the game for the Dolphins offense. He's third in the league over the past two seasons in yards per route run against two-high coverage and fourth in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Astute readers will note that the game 4 beatdown in Buffalo last season slammed the brakes on a runaway Miami offense who dropped a 70-burger on the Broncos a week prior. De'Von Achane announced himself to the football world in that game with 203 rushing yards on 18 carries, good for a whopping 11.3 average, plus four receptions for another 30 yards - and, oh yeah - four total touchdowns. The following week he gashed the Bills for 101 yards on just 8 carries and scored twice. The Bills defense tightened up in week 18, surrendering 56 yards on 10 rushes, though still good for 5.6 yards a pop.

The Miami offense is so lethal because of the speed and space it creates. Play man-to-man like Jacksonville and risk giving up explosive, game-changing plays. Major in zone coverage and the timing-based rhythm offense becomes point-and-shoot for Tagovailoa. What makes it so special is how the speed of Hill and Waddle transforms the field. The two speedsters can turn a normal 8-12 yard route into a 12-16 yard route within 2.32 seconds - Tua's average time to throw on dropbacks in 2023.

The pressure the WRs put on defenses is linked to the run game, which again, features hot, nasty, speed. If a defense is forced to commit more resources to stopping the run then it's only a matter of time before it gets gashed in the passing game. And this brings me to the key to tonight's game. The Bills live in nickel personnel and count on Taron Johnson to play above his size in the run game. With him out it's going to put even more pressure on the linebackers. Can Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams slow down the Dolphins run game without getting fooled on play-action fakes? I expect a lot of RPO's and play-action from the Dolphins tonight to pry open the middle of the field to attack Cam Lewis and the safeties. Douglas and Christian Benford should more than hold their own outside the numbers (with plenty of cloud help on Hill), but McDaniel will toy with coverage schemes with a variety of motions. His cheat motion swept across the league last season, and while the Jags did a remarkable job passing off coverage responsibilities in week one, I'm worried about the Bills' ability to do so consistently. What makes that motion so effective is the way it changes the number counts for defensive backs. Switching assignments right at the snap with an on-the-move Tyreek Hill is a recipe for confusion and breakdowns. McDermott and Babich have seen it before, but I think McDaniel will unveil some new wrinkles tonight after being slowed by Jacksonville.

The Dolphins added Jonnu Smith in the offseason and I expect him to play a pivotal role in tonight's game. Durham Smythe got targets when the Bills played zone last year and could offer a glimpse into the Dolphins game plan for Smith. Smythe was on the field for 40 passing plays in week 4 last year. He split time as an in-line tight end and in the slot. He actually led the Dolphins in slot snaps with 18, three more than Hill or Berrios. Last week, Smith was in the slot on 12 of his 19 pass play snaps. Hill had 17 and Berrios 11. Next on the list? None other than De'Von Achane with 10 slot snaps. Achane was second on the team with seven targets versus Jacksonville and had 76 receiving yards and 2.92 yards per route run. Perhaps it was a one game aberration or a specific counter to the Jags man looks, but it sure looks to me like Achane is the Dolphins new WR3. He's a game-time decision with an ankle injury, but per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport there is "optimism he plays." Bernard and Williams were already in for a long night trying to sort through the Dolphins rushing attack and tracking down Achane. Now, it looks to me like they'll also have to contend with him in the passing game, which as mentioned, is where the young linebacker duo has struggled. Babich will surely mix in some three safety looks and deploy Rapp as a robber to try to limit the damage in the middle the field, but Rapp is prone to playing himself out of position. It will be up to Bernard and Williams to play disciplined but aggressive against the run, then work back to the middle of the field to take away crossers. Above all else the Bills defense has to tackle well and do its best to limit YAC damage.

The Bills should have an advantage upfront against an undersized but mobile offensive line. In the week 4 blowout last season the Bills erupted with four sacks on 13 pressures (31% P2S%), and while the defense failed to record a sack in week 18, it still managed to generate nine pressures. With the offense designed to get the ball out of Tua's hands quickly it can be difficult to bring him down, but pressure can disrupt Tua's timing. I distinctly remember watching for 'double pats' in the week 18 game - dropbacks where Tua hesitated and patted the ball indicating a glitch in the timing of the play. That's an unofficial stat I'll be counting tonight. Jacksonville pressured Tua six times last week and impressively brought him to the ground three times. Meanwhile, the Bills defensive line, led by star leap candidate Gregory Rousseau, had 14 pressures and four sacks of the much more mobile Kyler Murray in week 1. With potentially reinvigorated Von Miller and the rising A.J. Epenesa on the outside, along with Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones on the interior, the Bills front four has a chance to be the deciding factor in the game. The Bills don't blitz often (18th in blitz rate in 2023, per Pro Football Reference), and rely on the front four to apply pressure while the DBs clog up throwing lanes on the back end. If the Bills can win in the trenches, limit the Dolphins rushing attack, and get pressure on Tua it will go a long way to securing another victory over its rival.

When Buffalo Has the Ball

It's a lot more simple on this side of the ball, but again, I think it all comes down to the running game. The Bills are set up to play a more complimentary style of football this season by relying on James Cook, the revamped offensive line, and heavy personnel groupings to control games. Looking back to week 18 with Joe Brady at the controls, the Bills had 36 rushing attempts and dominated the time of possession holding onto the ball for 38 minutes. A first quarter end zone interception ruined an opening 12-play drive. Another Allen INT miscue short-circuited a promising second drive. A sack-fumble by Christian Wilkins stalled out a 13-play drive in the third quarter. And, while clinging to a 21-14 lead late in the fourth quarter, Allen was stuffed on 4th and 1. Fortunately, an electrifying punt return touchdown by Deonte Harty and a game-sealing interception by Rapp pushed the Bills over the top and to their fourth straight division title. Even accounting for the three turnovers, Allen played an efficient game, finishing 30-38 for 359 yards and carrying the ball 15 times (!) for 67 yards. He accounted for 17 total first downs including eight on the ground. With the division on the line, Brady let Allen loose as a runner - 11 of his 15 rushes were designed. And oh by the way, some guy named Khalil Shakir led the Bills with 105 receiving yards.

Early in the season with Allen already nursing a non-throwing hand injury after a vintage hurdle against the Cardinals I expect Brady to lean on Cook heavily this time around. Going back to week 15 against the Cowboys provides a blueprint. In that dominant performance Cook toted the rock 25 times for 179 yards and had seven runs of 10+ yards. Brady's varied run scheme was on full display that night with Cook getting 14 zone scheme runs and 11 gap scheme runs. With Christian Wilkins off to Las Vegas, year two of Dalton Kincaid, a group of hard-nosed willing blockers at WR, and a full offseason of Brady's tutelage, the Bills run game is set up to command the game tonight.

New Miami defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver brings his experience from Baltimore to the mix this season. Former Bills safety Jordan Poyer defected this offseason joining a formidable Miami DB crew featuring Jevon Holland, Kendall Fuller, and Jalen Ramsey. In week one Miami played cover 3 on 40% on dropbacks and limited Trevor Lawrence to 162 passing yards on 21 attempts. Allen may find a soft spot in the Miami zone in nickel corner back Kader Kohou. Last week, Khalil Shakir (82%) and Dalton Kincaid (62%) primarily lined up in the slot and that's a continuation from 2023 (Shakir 77%, Kincaid 60% slot alignment).

Prediction

All week long I've been worried about the Bills DBs holding up against Hill, Waddle, and WR3-Achane. I still have those fears. But the more I thought about this game the more I think it resembles the week 18 game we saw last year. Limited big plays, long drives, the Bills controlling the game on the ground. If Miami is going to win it will be through explosive plays with the run game being used to put the Bills linebackers in a blender. I'll certainly take my chances with Josh Allen on the other side of a shootout. But, I think the Bills clearest path to victory is to pound the rock, establish James Cook, and mix in enough explosive pass plays to Kincaid and Shakir out of the slot. End of the day, the Bills win this one by having a better offensive line and a better defensive line. The front creates just enough pressure to rattle Tua throughout the game, and late in the fourth quarter a Christian Benford interception gives the ball back to Allen in time to work his magic.

Bills 28, Dolphins 27.