The Bills are Back!

It's been a long summer, but finally the Bills are set to open training camp at St. John Fisher University today! The Bills are ready to turn toward the future after a flurry of activity during free agency and an exciting draft that has fans feeling cautiously optimistic about the coming season. Before diving into the strengths of the roster and addressing some concerns, let's reset the roster and take a look at the 91 players vying for a coveted roster spot. (The Bills took advantage of the NFL's International Pathways Program to bring on OL Travis Clayton, who does not count toward the current 90-man offseason limit).

Offense

Between established veterans, re-signees, internal development successes, and breakout candidates the Bills starting units look strong on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen and Dion Dawkins will again lead the offense with Dalton Kincaid and James Cook hoping to build on promising 2023 seasons. The returning Khalil Shakir, former Washington Commander Curtis Samuel, and newcomer Keon Coleman are hoping to fill the voids left by the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

The offensive line returns four of last year's five starters with former backup David Edwards joining the group at left guard and kicking Connor McGovern to center replacing Mitch Morse. The Bills were one of two teams to have the same 5-man combination at offensive line play more than 97% of offensive snaps, per SumerSports.

The Bills parted ways with Morse partly because it appears Josh Allen is ready to shoulder more of the load. Allen and Morse formed one of the best C-QB batteries in the league before Morse was a cap casualty this offseason. There were, however, already signs emerging that Allen was ready to be more assertive in setting protections, changing plays at the line, and operating as more of a Peyton Manning-esque 'sheriff.' Nate Tice of Yahoo! Sports recently talked about how the proliferation of Kyle Shanahan offenses (motion and shift heavy) has removed some of those aspects of quarterbacking. Other offenses rely on the mental aspect of quarterbacking to steer the ship, notably Dallas with Dak Prescott and the Packers and Jets with Aaron Rodgers. It will be interesting to see how much offensive coordinator Joe Brady gives the keys to Allen or if the he tries to incorporate more motions and shifts into the offense.

Two Concerns on Offense

Offensive line health regression. As mentioned above, the Bills had the same five starters on the line for the entire 2023 season. While the starting unit ranks as solid in the preseason, any substantial missed time could grind the entire offense down. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills line No. 8 in its preseason rankings (No. 5 in the AFC), with Dawkins the 21st-rated offensive tackle. Continued improvement from second-year right guard O'Cyrus Torrence along with strong play from right tackle Spencer Brown in a contract year should shore up the right side. The weak spots will be at left guard, with Edwards the likely starter, and potentially at center with McGovern shifting over. Behind the starters veteran free agent signee La'el Collins could serve an important role as a swing tackle or he could kick inside to shore up the guard spots. Brandon Beane used the 141st pick in the draft on what he hopes will be the center of the future in Sedrick Van Pran-Granger. The Georgia product could push for snaps in his rookie season. Ryan Van Demark and Alec Anderson have been in the system, but the Bills surely hope they see the field sparingly. The second unit will hopefully be able to limit the damage from any long-term injury in the starting ranks. Given the possibility of regression to the mean along the line that could be the difference between the Bills offense functioning at a high level for the entire season and them sputtering through a transition year.

Lack of top-end speed at wide receiver. There are two ways to think about the wide receivers selected in the 2024 draft. On one hand, one could argue the collegiate ranks are churning out undersized speedsters that will struggle at the next level against the physicality of professional defensive backs and complex schemes designed to limit big plays. On the other hand, one could argue that hot, nasty speed is the best way to lift the roofs off Vic Fangio-style two-high shells that more and more defensive playcallers are employing. The Bills opted to replace Stefon Diggs (and to a lesser extent Gabe Davis) by committee. First by signing Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency. And then by selecting Florida State star Keon Coleman with the 33rd pick in the draft. Coleman is best known for dunking on people and coming down with 50-50 balls - something the Bills had hoped Davis would excel at. With a bevy of slot options already on the roster Beane opted for the true X outside receiver in Coleman.

Many of the Bills AFC rivals went the other direction and selected smaller, faster receivers. Kansas City selected Xavier Worthy out of Texas who ran a blistering 4.21 second 40-yard dash at the combine. The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers selected 5'11" wideouts Malachi Corley and Roman Wilson, respectively, while division rival Miami added 5'9" Malik Washington to its crew of hyper-fast receivers. The Jacksonville Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr.) and Indianapolis Colts (Adonai Mitchell) were the only other AFC teams to draft a wide receiver over 6'0" in the three rounds of the draft. The bet Beane is making is that the speed will come from the free agent signings and Coleman will develop into a dominant outside threat. It will be fascinating to watch this wide receiver class evolve and see how defenses adapt.

Reason for Optimism (Besides Josh Allen)

Skill positions got younger and more versatile. For three-plus years Stefon Diggs was the easy answer. Third and seven? Dial up Diggs. First and 15? Get back on schedule with No. 14. Red zone? Let Stefon cook. But for whatever reason, by the middle of last season those answers stopped coming so easy for the offense. The newly installed Joe Brady featured Cook both as a runner and receiver and Shakir transformed into a reliable option for Allen. Dalton Kincaid continued to develop and Dawson Knox returned from injury. Suddenly, the offense had other answers, albeit none made it as easy as Diggs. This offseason represented a turning points for the organization. With Allen's extension kicking in (and a new one likely coming down the pike soon) the Bills were forced to identify areas to get younger. Cook and Kincaid were the first pieces of the puzzle. Coleman and fourth-round running back Ray Davis are this year's entries. Wide receiver production will be the dominant narrative all season, but one underrated factor is the versatility now offered by this younger group. The shift began last season as the offense began featuring more 12 and 21 personnel looks. According to SumerSports, the Bills in 2022 featured 11 personnel on 71.1% of plays (7th ranked), 21 looks on 12.1% (7th), and 12 groupings on just 4.7% of plays (32nd). Those figures in 2023 were 62.7% (19th), 4.5% (17th), and a 19.1% (12th). That massive leap in 12 personnel usage should continue into 2024 with Kincaid a year wiser and Knox fully healthy. Brady can also get creative with four- and five-wide receiver sets, pony formations featuring Cook and another back, and try to confuse defenses by featuring more motion and shifts. It may take until the week 12 bye for everything to sort itself out, but I expect the Bills to be firing on all cylinders come December and January as long as the o-line remains relatively healthy (see above).

Defense

Coach Sean McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will surely miss the stellar safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Combined with post-June 1st cut Tre'Davious White, the defense lost a ton of star power and even more leadership. However, the rest of last year's starting group remains in tact, including breakout linebacker Terrel Bernard. With Matt Milano returning from injury, DaQuan Jones and A.J. Epenesa re-signing, and new draft picks providing depth at every level, the defense should remain one of the best in the league. If Von Miller can merely become a solid contributor again the defense could take a step forward despite the new faces at safety.

Two Concerns on Defense

Cornerback depth. Brandon Beane was out in front of the White situation. First, he made an in-season trade for Packers corner Rasul Douglas who helped shore up the secondary down the stretch. Second, because of the structure of Douglas' previous contract Beane was able to work with Douglas to creatively restructure his deal this offseason. The move provided much-needed salary cap relief while giving Douglas more money up front in the form of a signing bonus (which for cap purposes was spread across three additional void years). In addition to Douglas, McDermott and Babich have development success stories Christian Benford and Taron Johnson locked into starting corner roles. Johnson was named to his first All-Pro team in 2023 at the slot cornerback position and Benford has been a fixture in the Bills defensive backfield since breaking out at his first training camp. Behind the starters, however, questions loom. Former first-round pick Kaiir Elam will get first crack at the fourth corner position, along with this year's 219th selection Daequan Hardy. From there it's former practice squad players and undrafted free agent signees. The defense suffered major injuries last year, as shown in the PFF chart below, and any significant time lost by the top three corners this season could severely damage the defense. While McDermott can always be trusted to figure things out (see: last season), the burden may again fall on Beane to shore up this thin position group.

Lack of edge closer. It all goes back to Von Miller. He was signed and heralded as the missing piece to taking down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bills finally had its version of Mariano Rivera. The ultimate closer and true champion who would help deliver a championship to Buffalo. That all went out the window on Thanksgiving Day, 2022 when Miller tore his ACL. Hopes were high that Miller would be fully recovered at some point during the 2023 campaign, but he never looked like he had his bendy ways back. If 2022 was disaster and 2023 was frustrating, perhaps 2024 can be about redemption for Miller. The band got back together on the defensive line when Epenesa and Jones re-signed. They'll team back up with Ed Oliver and Gregory Rousseau to form a solid, if not spectacular, starting unit. Third-round defensive tackle DeWayne Carter (Duke's first ever three-year captain) joins veteran DeShawn Williams and Austin Johnson to provide McDermott with coveted rotational depth at tackle. On the outside the Bills are hopeful fifth-round sack machine Javon Solomon can step into a rotational role. If Epenesa can continue his splashy ways, Rousseau levels up, and Solomon finds ways to contribute the defensive line should more than hold its own. But as I said... it all goes back to Von Miller.

Reason for Optimism (Besides Sean McDermott)

Continuity. I'm actually not worried about Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards taking over for Hyde and Poyer. Perhaps it's my faith in McDermott or optimism that second-round pick Cole Bishop can contribute in a meaningful way immediately, but for whatever reason I think the backend of the defense will hold up just fine (knocks on every piece of wood he can find). Another reason for my optimism is that I believe in the continuity of the rest of the position groups. Corner and d-line have been discussed, and while I'm concerned about the depth at corner, I'm excited about the starting trio. At linebacker Terrel Bernard flashed star potential as a rookie last season and should only get better. Meanwhile, Matt Milano is starting training camp as a full participant after fracturing his tibia in last season's week five loss in London. Behind them Baylon Specter and Dorian Williams are joined by former Eagles linebacker Nicholas Morrow and 2024 fifth-round selection Edefuan Ulofoshio (who is already 24 years of age and may be ready to contribute this season). The continuity of the non-safety position groups combined with McDermott's presence and Babich's young perspective should have the Bills defense at the top of the league.

53-Man Roster Projection

Offense Locks (18):

QB: Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky

RB: James Cook, Ray Davis

WR: Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE/FB: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam, Quintin Morris

OL: Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown

Key Camp Battles I'm Watching:

Backup Wide Receiver: The starting trio appears locked in but after that I could be talked into just about anything. Will K.J. Hamler become the speed option I mentioned above? Can 2023 fifth-rounder Justin Shorter carve out a role? Can Chase Claypool find his best self in Western New York? And what how big are the roles for Hollins and Valdes-Scantling? This is the most fascinating position group to follow at camp.

Line Depth: I only listed the starters as locks because I feel like any combination of the reserves could be left off the final roster. Van Demark and Anderson are as close to locks as can be, and I think Collins has enough left in the tank plus offers some versatility. Van Pran-Granger should have a nice reserve role, as well. But I could also see a world where any of them are beat out by a Tylan Grable or a Will Clapp or the appropriately named Keaton Bills. If I'm guessing right now it'll be Van Demark, Anderson, Collins, and Van Pran-Granger, but I'm hesitant to call them locks for now.

Backup Running Back: Ty Johnson was brought back in the offseason and saw a big bump in usage once Brady took over. He'll have to fend off challenges from practice squad stalwart Darrynton Evans and undrafted free agent Frank Gore Jr.

Defense Locks (17):

DL: Gregory Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Von Miller, DeWayne Carter, Austin Johnson

LB: Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Specter

CB: Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson

S: Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop

Key Camp Battles I'm Watching:

Backup Cornerback: By far my biggest concern heading into the 2024 season. Unless Elam figures it out or Hardy has a Benford-esque camp there just isn't a lot to like behind the starters. Ja'Marcus Ingram and Kyron Brown are practice squaders. Perhaps Keni-H Lovely or Te'Cory Couch can go from undrafted free agent to key backup on a contender. I'll be closely following the second team reps and something tells me if there's a move left for Beane to make before the season it will be at corner.

Backup Linebacker: New vs old. While I have Specter and Williams as locks, it will be interesting to follow the impact Morrow and Ulofoshio have on who gets second-team reps. Linebacker is perhaps the one position that McDermott feels comfortable playing youngsters at so it wouldn't surprise me if Ulofoshio pushes for some. Then again, McDermott and Babich may prefer to have Morrow's veteran voice behind Milano.

Back up Safety: I'm interested to see if Cole Bishop can push Rapp or Edwards for first-team reps. Beyond that trio Cam Lewis returns to provide continuity and versatility in the defensive backfield. If Bishop pops might we see some three safety looks??

Special Teams Locks (1):

LS: Reid Ferguson

Key Camp Battles I'm Watching:

Punter: Sam Martin returns, but Beane already signaled that he's not a roster lock when he brought back former Bills punter Matt Haack, and then upon cutting Haack brought in Jack Browning as an undrafted free agent. If Martin struggles the door is wide open.

Kicker: I'm just saying Tyler Bass is not a lock at this point. I'll be monitoring his performance throughout camp and keeping my eye on other teams' cuts at kicker. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills went in a different direction.

Roster Projection and Final Cuts

Based on the locks and what I expect from the camp battles above here is my 53-man roster projection:

QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky

RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

WR (7): Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Shorter, K.J. Hamler

TE/FB (4): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam, Quintin Morris

OL (9): Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ryan Van Demark, La'el Collins, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Alec Anderson

DL (10): Gregory Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Von Miller, DeWayne Carter, Austin Johnson, DeShawn Williams, Kingsley Jonathan, Javon Solomon

LB (6): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Specter, Nicholas Morrow, Edefuan Ulofoshio

CB (5): Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Daequan Hardy

S (4): Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis

LS (1): Reid Ferguson

P (1): Sam Martin

K (1): Tyler Bass

Last Five In: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, CB Daequan Hardy, DL Kingsley Jonathan, WR Justin Shorter, WR K.J. Hamler

Last Five Out: S Damar Hamlin, OL Will Clapp, DL Casey Toohill, DL Eli Ankou, WR Andy Isabella