Trap Game Alert! Bills-Jaguars Week 3 Preview

The Bills and Jaguars have played 19 times in history with Jacksonville leading the series 10-9 and boasting wins in both playoff games. Remarkably, the teams have scored the same number of total points (394) against each other in those 19 meetings. Though far from a heated rivalry, Jacksonville has unwelcomingly inserted itself into a disproportionate number of disappointing Buffalo sports moments.

• 1996: The end of an era. Franchise legend Jim Kelly was knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter and the Bills fell 30-27 to a Jaguars franchise making its first playoff appearance. Kelly retired a month later. Buffalo would not host another home playoff game until 2020. I was at this game with my dad. It sucked.

• 2004: A classic drought era loss, the Bills home opener ended with a thud when Bryon Leftwich connected with (checks notes) Ernest Wilford on fourth down as time expired. Jacksonville 13, Buffalo 10.

• 2009: A forgettable season saw the Bills fire head coach Dick Jauron after a 3-6 start. With interim coach Perry Fewell at the controls, Buffalo took a 15-10 lead on a 98-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Terrell Owens (wow that is weird to type and reread). Naturally, David Garrard led the Jaguars on a last minute touchdown drive with (checks notes) Mike Sims-Walker providing the decisive score. 18-15 Jacksonville.

• 2015: Rex Ryan predicted the Bills would make the playoffs at his introductory press conference. After a middling 3-3 start Buffalo trekked across the pond to London to face a 1-5 Jaguars team. With a chance to get right Buffalo promptly fell behind 27-3 in the second quarter. The Bills would rally to take the lead in the fourth quarter, but Blake Bortles found (checks notes) Allen Hurns with 2:16 left to secure the win, 34-31.

• 2018: No one really cared because the drought was finally over, but the Bills first postseason game since the Music City Miracle was an afront to modern professional football. The game featured 17 punts, 208 combined passing yards, and one lonely touchdown drive that proved to be the difference in the Jags 10-3 win. To reiterate, no one cared, but still, up popped an ugly, low-scoring loss to Jacksonville.

• 2021: With Josh Allen leading the way the Bills flew into Jacksonville at 5-2 having scored 35+ points in four of its five wins including a 38-20 dismantling of the Chiefs at Arrowhead. In one of the biggest upsets in NFL history, the Jaguars slammed the brakes on the Bills offense. Buffalo committed 12 penalties and turned the ball over three times. All the offense could muster was two Tyler Bass field goals in an inexplicable 9-6 loss.

• 2023: Coming off three straight lopsided victories scoring 37+ points the Bills again set out for London to face the Jaguars. And once again, Jacksonville flummoxed the Bills offense. Tre'Davious White tore his Achilles the week before and injuries during the game to DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano crippled the defense. The Jags rushed for 196 yards on 40 attempts while smothering the Bills run game to just 29 total yards. Despite two late fourth quarter touchdowns from Allen (one passing, one rushing), the Jaguars held on for a 25-20 victory. I was at this game. It sucked.

To recap: That's losses of 13-10, 18-15, 10-3, 9-6, and 25-20... two playoff losses... two losses in London... and some of the more random names in NFL history heavily involved. The Bills have looked good through two weeks of the 2024 season while the Jaguars have underwhelmed in two losses. Surely, the Bills will keep things rolling and the Jaguars will be a mere speedbump for Josh Allen and Co. on their way to a 3-0 start...

TRAP GAME ALERT! Here's what I'm focused on tonight. All stats per PFF unless otherwise referenced.

When Buffalo Has the Ball

The Jaguars lead the league in man coverage so far in 2024 at 63% rate, per Fantasy Points Data and @fball_insights. According to Warren Sharp, Josh Allen in 16 dropbacks against man has thrown three touchdowns, is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, and has a +.51 EPA per attempt. Looking at 2023 to boost the sample shows a .219 EPA per play and a 50.1% success rate for Allen. This game could be as simple as that. Josh Allen vs. Man Coverage.

But where exactly does Allen go with the ball and who does he target when facing man? Here's a breakdown of the limited 2024 sample size:

• James Cook: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 46 yards, 43 YAC, 5.75 Yards Per Route Run, 1 TD

• Keon Coleman: 3-1-28-0-1.87

• Mack Hollins: 1-1-11-1-1.00 - 1 TD

• Khalil Shakir: 1-1-11-13-0.92 - 1TD

• Dalton Kincaid: 1-1-8-12-0.62

Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in 2023 amassed 78 targets vs. man coverage for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns (four for Diggs). The new look Bills WR room also includes Curtis Samuel, who in 2023, had 21 receptions for 224 yards and 1 touchdown against man. In terms of personnel, the Jaguars have seen the 2nd-most number of 21 personnel plays and 2nd-least number of 11 groupings. However, the Jags EPA allowed against 11 personnel is ranked 22nd. When in sub personnel on defense the Jaguars feature Jarrian Jones at nickel corner. In 44 slot coverage naps he's been targeted 7 times and allowed 5 receptions for 46 yards.

I expect the Bills to spread out the Jaguars defense with Dalton Kincaid acting as more of a slot receiver than a tight end and Khalil Shakir mixing in. That will allow Allen to spot pressure looks, get the ball out quickly, and let his guys go to work against Jones. Meanwhile, on the outside Keon Coleman could be in for a big night. The Jags top corner, Tyson Campbell, is on IR, and safety Darnell Savage will miss the game, as well. With all the attention on the slot and middle of the field I can see OC Joe Brady scheming up some Coleman one-on-ones. We all know Allen will let 'em rip and give his guy opportunities. Similarly, Brady has already motioned and moved Samuel around a variety formations to dictate matchups. I wouldn't be surprised if Samuel gets unlocked for a couple explosive plays, as well.

It's telling that I'm on paragraph four and haven't highlighted James Cook, yet. Cook was electric against Miami, but I don't necessarily such a run-heavy game script from the Bills against Jacksonville. Cook will certainly get his touches out of the backfield, but I think his main damage will come in the passing game. Back in week one, De'Von Achance torched the Jags defense for 76 yards on 7 catches. Obviously, the Bills a deeper receiving group than the Dolphins, but if the Bills get into plus territory I expect some wheel routes to get Cook on a linebacker. And then in the red zone, I bet we'll see the cross-formation leak play that the Bills have crushed teams with under Brady.

When the Jacksonville Has the Ball

It's not that the Jags offense has been terrible so far in 2024, it's just it's been... weird. With Jim Harbaugh steadying the ship in Los Angeles, Jacksonville has become #TeamLOL. That team that just can't seem to get out of it's own way and keeps finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In week one it was a Travis Etienne Jr. fumble at the goal line that would've given Jacksonville a 24-7 lead on Miami. The next play from scrimmage was an 80-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill. Last week, the Jags mustered only 13 points against the Browns as Trevor Lawrence was limited to a 46.7 completion percentage. Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. lead the Jaguars in receiving with 6 catches apiece and 246 combined yards.

The offense has entirely relied on explosive plays to stay competitive. Thomas, in particular, has hauled in 3 receptions on throws 20+ yards downfield for 108 yards and a touchdown. Thomas Jr. leads the Jags with 2.82 YPRR and has an average depth of target of 16.3 yards. Lawrence is third in the league with a 7.0% big time throw rate, oddly enough trailing Bills' opponents Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa. Lawrence is second in ADOT at 11.9, but overall has just a 51% completion percentage.

The Bills defense, as always will attempt to put a lid on the offense and limit explosive plays, but I am worried about the middle of the field. With Thomas Jr. the deep threat, Christian Kirk and backup tight end Brenton Strange work underneath. Kirk has disappointed so far in 2024 with just 2 receptions on 7 targets including 2 drops. The Bills defense will need strong showings from Cam Lewis, Dorian Williams, and Baylon Spector and the pair of safeties on the back end to force the Jaguars to be efficient - something the Jags offense has not shown it can do.

One way to be more efficient and stay on schedule is to be successful in the run game. The Jags gashed the Bills for 196 yards on 40 carries with Travis Etienne Jr. going off for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thus far in 2024, Etienne Jr. has done most of his damage on outside runs. Over 58% of his rushing yards have come on runs outside a tight end gap. This type of run scheme will challenge the Bills defensive ends to set the edge and then Williams and Spector will have to flow to the ball. Etienne Jr. has not been the most efficient back, but he does have four runs of 10+ yards in 2024 and was tied for 17th among all RBs in 10+ yards in 2023.

Prediction

If the Bills can limit damage in the run game and force Lawrence to be efficient it should be enough to sink the Jaguars. Unless Jags DC Ryan Nielsen completely flips the script on his man/zone splits Allen should be able to find explosives down the field to Coleman, Cook, and/or Samuel. The Bills have become an efficiency machine with the ball, while the Jaguars are stuck leaning on big plays from Lawrence, Thomas Jr., and Davis. It's the Jaguars and it's a big nationally televised game in front of a raucous Bills Mafia crowd so I am fully prepared for a defensive battle and way too many kicker appearances. But in the end, I don't think the Jaguars secondary can hang with the Everybody Eats crowd. A big night for Keon Coleman and yet another anaconda defensive effort put Buffalo over the top.

Bills 27, Jaguars 19. Go Bills!